Vol. 1, No. 4
Headline Back Issues Fall 1997
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Warming weather forecasts trouble Durham, New Hampshire -- Trackers of global climate change say even a small climb in the earth's temperature could spike coastal property insurance rates and jeopardize coastal fishing and tourist economies. At a September workshop at the University of New Hampshire (UNH) in Durham, one of a series sponsored by the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and the US Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP), researchers and representatives of conservation and business organizations discussed regional concerns about the potential effects of climate change. Prediction permits preparation
But scientists hope their continued study of the issue will turn up information that will help communities, businesses, and industries take practical steps to prepare for the phenomenon's repercussions. Earth's weather is not becoming uniformly more severe, but is more difficult to predict than it has been in the past, according to Dan Golden, director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Golden told those attending the New Hampshire workshop that the agency hopes to develop methods for making climate forecasts years in advance, enabling insurance, recreation, shipping, and fishing industries to avoid unexpected losses. Golden noted that NASA has already predicted the occurrence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Every two to five years, trade winds along the equator relax, allowing ocean currents to move eastward along the equator, spreading warm sea-surface temperatures toward the South American coast, and bringing with them warmer, damper weather. El Niño's climate effects can reach as far as the Gulf of Maine, and scientists are calling for an especially fierce manifestation of the effect this year. A similar kind of phenomenon in the Atlantic Ocean is called the North Atlantic Oscillation. Scientists continue to study the degree to which natural occurrences such as El Niño, as well as indications of an increase in the sun's temperature, may play a role in global warming. The most discussed, and most controversial factor, however, are so-called greenhouse gases. Greenhouse becomes hothouse The greenhouse effect is the process in which gases in the Earth's atmosphere trap the sun's heat, much like the glass walls and ceiling of a greenhouse do. Naturally occurring and human-caused factors are increasing the levels of greenhouse gases, trapping more heat than in the past, and altering the factors that determine where certain species can survive. Global mean temperatures could increase by 1.8 to 6.3 degrees Fahrenheit (1 to 3.5 degrees Celsius) by the year 2100, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Even a few degrees' change can affect the ability of plant and animal species to survive in their current habitats. Volcanic activity contributes to the increase in heat-trapping greenhouse gases, as do certain human activities. Use of combustion engines and industrial plants generates carbon dioxide and other emissions. The practice of clear cutting forests reduces the number of trees available to absorb carbon dioxide. Climate change's effects on the Gulf Of concern to coastal communities in the Gulf of Maine, warmer ocean temperatures may affect what species of fish can live in the Gulf's marine environment. Some fish species could decline as the cold water organisms on which they feed migrate, and new species moving into the Gulf may not necessarily be as marketable. But Brian Doyle, associate director of the UNH Sea Grant College Program, cautioned that not enough research has been conducted on how global warming might affect fisheries to be able to predict redistribution of species. Another effect on Gulf communities is increased erosion. Scientists say warmer ocean temperatures cause the sea to expand and melt glaciers. These factors increase sea level, which, according to OSTP, is predicted to rise by 6 to 38 inches (15 to 95 cm) by the end of the next century. Sea level rise is already increasing shoreline erosion and flooding in New England, damaging property, according to researchers. Graham Giese, a geologist at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute in Massachusetts, said rising sea level annually submerges 65 acres (26 hectares) of upland in that state, which is developing legislation to help minimize economic losses to coastal property owners or buyers. The sea level rise is also threatening New England salt marshes and estuaries that provide food and shelter for fin fish and shellfish. "Marshes and mud flats and estuaries that currently are being used by a great majority of the Gulf of Maine species at some point in their life cycle would obviously be eliminated or vastly modified" by a rise in sea level, said Doyle. He explained, "Without these habitats, it would certainly have an impact on the fisheries of the Gulf of Maine. But again, how one would try to quantify anything like that would be a little bit difficult at this point." Another predicted effect of global warming that could affect mariners is more frequent storms at sea caused by increased moisture in the atmosphere resulting from faster evaporation of warmer ocean water. Scientists call for action Researchers and environmentalists are suggesting that communities and regions help reduce global warming by using less fossil fuels, which create greenhouse gases as they burn; developing infrastructures better able to withstand climate changes; and managing fisheries using methods that promote diverse species more adaptable to climate changes. As international representatives prepared to meet in early December in Kyoto, Japan to devise an international treaty addressing the wide-ranging effects of global climate change, the international Union of Concerned Scientists urged world leaders in a September statement to enact policies that will cut down on human contributions to global warming. Environmental groups have criticized US President Bill Clinton as having developed weak energy efficiency proposals for the Kyoto summit, while business groups warn that too-aggressive measures will increase gas and electricity costs. For more information on global change research, visit these web sites. The US Global Change Data and Information System Atlantic Region Climate Exchange Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans and Space |
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Gulf of Maine Council on the Marine
After a few seasons as a hot issue, global warming one facet of the more comprehensive area of study known as global climate change had, in recent years, met with a chilly reception from a public weary of immense environmental problems.