Confronting regional climate change
Most scientists agree we’re in for some dramatic climate variations. The question is: What can we do about it?

By Maureen Kelly

Across the Northeast, nature is changing in subtle ways. In Long Island Sound, for instance, blue crabs—a warm-water species—are now appearing where cold-water lobsters were once more abundant. It is a shift of habitat range, which some scientists attribute partly to warming waters in the Sound. In New Hampshire, the maple-tapping season is starting earlier because of the overall trend toward warmer and shorter winters. At the same time, the weather is becoming more volatile. This past year, the northeastern seaboard experienced record-breaking cold snaps and snowfalls, severe ice storms, flash flooding and a Category 2 hurricane that left disaster in its wake.

Many experts, who attended a symposium in Boston this spring, believe these signs are precursors to more dramatic alterations in the natural environment and more extreme weather to come. The symposium, sponsored by the Conference of New England Governors and Eastern Canadian Premiers (NEG/ECP), brought together scientists, policymakers and resource managers from the United States and Canada to exchange scientific knowledge of the anticipated impacts of climate change and to discuss means for adapting to them under a regional Climate Action Plan.

Addressing audience members at the event, Robert Corell of the American Meteorological Society, acknowledged the challenges of tackling the climate change issue given the complexity of the problem and uncertainties associated with it. Nevertheless, the task “needs an order of magnitude jump,” he said, stressing the importance of stepping up efforts to prepare for the economic and ecological impacts that global warming could bring.

Several years ago, the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change, an international body of scientists, determined that human activities over the last 50 years helped make the 20th Century the warmest century of the past millennium. The burning of fossil fuels is largely to blame for the unprecedented build-up of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere, which prevent heat from escaping into space. Changes to the land—such as cutting forests that store carbon dioxide, a major GHG—also play a part in global warming.

Already climate change is evidenced in warmer oceans, less polar sea ice, and longer freeze-free seasons in the higher latitudes. As the planet continues to heat up, many experts predict that the climate will become more variable and prone to mete out frequent and severe storms, droughts, floods and heat waves.

Rising temperatures could also cause vegetation zones and fish and wildlife habitat ranges to shift. If that becomes the case, New Hampshire’s climate may one day be as inhospitable to sugar maple trees as the warming waters of Long Island Sound may be for lobsters now.

Storm surges, rising sea levels and erosion would exacerbate the losses to private property, roads and other infrastructure that we are now seeing in some coastal areas. Some wildlife, fish and plant species, confronted with a rapidly changing environment, may disappear, leaving unstable ecosystems with less biodiversity. Economic sectors that depend on natural resources—such as fishing, farming, forestry and tourism—may suffer in turn.

The financial impacts of climate change could be staggering. Currently, worldwide economic damage from climate-related events costs $40 billion annually. Such losses are projected to reach $150 billion by 2010, according to Swiss Re, one of the world’s leading reinsurers.

The storms that hit eastern Canada over the last year are proof that the costs from climate volatility are already mounting in the Northeast, according to Peter Hayes, program coordinator for ClimAdapt, a partnership that provides weather-related risk assessments and risk management expertise to Canadian and international clients.

The worst was September’s Hurricane Juan, the most devastating storm in the modern history of Nova Scotia. Juan caused at least $100 million in damage in the province, Hayes said, recalling how the storm destroyed homes and businesses and “flattened whole areas of forests like matchsticks.”

A record-breaking blizzard in February 2004, which put the area into a state of emergency, and flash flooding in March 2003, which wiped out roads and overwhelmed sewer systems, also caused millions in losses.

“These [storms] are not anomalies,” Hayes said. “These are becoming the norm.”

Regional solutions

In the Northeast, hopes are resting on a regional Climate Action Plan that, if successful, could present a model for dealing with global warming for the rest of North America. Three years ago, the NEG/ECP announced the cross-border effort that is looking to reduce GHG emissions and reduce the damage climate change would inflict.
The plan calls for aggressive reductions in regional emissions—down to 1990 levels by 2010, to at least 10 percent below 1990 levels by 2020, and in the long-term, by 75 to 80 percent below the current levels. These targets would be met in part by cutting emissions in the electricity sector—through a mix of renewable energy, energy efficiency and energy conservation measures—and by slowing growth of emissions from the transportation sector.

Many challenges to meeting the targets remain, including obstacles to renewable energy, the popularity of polluting, fuel-inefficient vehicles and a lack of support from the U.S. federal government on the climate issue.

Adaptation strategies under the plan are in the formative stages. At the March symposium, Robert Corell said it is essential to establish the “ways and means” to integrate climate change into all levels of government and institutional planning.

Pioneering project in Nova Scotia

A project called Climate-SMART, launched in Halifax this March, is the first initiative getting off the ground in the region that takes an integrated approach to advancing pollution reduction and adaptation strategies. Coordinated by ClimAdapt, the project involves partnerships among three levels of Canadian government, the private sector and other stakeholders, such as residential associations, nonprofits and developers.

“This city is pioneering a very innovative and ambitious project—the first in Canada and as far as we’re aware, the first in North America,” said ClimAdapt’s Hayes.

Climate-SMART offers a suite of toolkits designed to help policymakers, municipal workers and others to respond to extreme weather and climate change.

The project includes a GHG emissions reduction plan that will have the city taking an inventory of emissions from vehicles, industry and other infrastructure. It will also include an evaluation of potentially vulnerable areas to the city’s infrastructure—such as utilities, roads and sewer systems—and environmental assets—such as greenspaces, beaches and other coastal areas—so that the city can develop risk management strategies and better prepare for emergencies.

Depending on what Halifax officials learn from the project, they might consider adaptive responses as complex as redesigning infrastructure to withstand more frequent storms or as simple as planting drought-or flood-resistant seeds in greenspaces.

Hayes is hopeful that the Climate-SMART model will catch on elsewhere. “We’re now having other provinces look at this in Canada and we hope New England will follow suit,” he said.

While Canada’s government has ratified the Kyoto Protocol, an international agreement to reduce GHG emissions, the United States has refused to sign. Many in the United States see local and regional efforts like the NEG/ECP plan as increasingly important.

“The world is watching,” Corell said to audience members at the March symposium, “They’re wondering if we’re going to pull this off.”

 © 2004 The Gulf of Maine Times